Statistics and Probability · Combinatorics and conditional probability

Bayes' theorem

Flipping a conditional probability around, going from P(evidence given cause) to P(cause given evidence).

Also known as: Bayes' rule, posterior probability.

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• Conditional probability and independence: How knowing one event happened changes, or doesn't change, the probability of another.

Leads to

• Bayesian inference: Updating a starting belief about a parameter into a revised belief, using Bayes' theorem and observed data.

Related topics

• Bayesian inference: Updating a starting belief about a parameter into a revised belief, using Bayes' theorem and observed data.